Senior Machine Learning Engineer (Ads Forecasting & Scenarios) Reddit
Online platform for sharing thoughts and discussions.
Permanent
United States of America
Fully-remote
216,7K to 303,4K $ a year
> 5 years
Skills we're looking for
Sales forecasting
Collaboration and teamwork
Segment
You'll be part of
United States of America
4186 employees
Software
Medios de comunicación
Our take
Reddits is an online platform that hosts thousands of message board communities (known as subreddits) designed to foster authentic human connection. With more than 100,000 communities covering everything from food, entertainment, and sports to niche interests for highly specific audiences, there's virtually a space for everyone. The platform attracts over 52M daily users and more than 50B monthly page views. While these figures are smaller than those of social media giants like Facebook and X, Reddits stands out by offering easily discoverable communities where users can dive deep into virtually any topic imaginable. Today, Reddit continues to grow its user base and expand its reach, remaining a unique hub for conversation,m connection, and shared interests. With its strong community-driven model and steady revenue streams, it's most definitely positioned to stay a central part of online culture for years to come.
You'll be working on
- Build the machine learning capabilities that help advertisers understand what they could achieve on Reddit and make better investment decisions
- On the Forecasting team, you will develop models that estimate how campaign outcomes could change with different budgets, bids, audiences, creative performance, or objectives
- Your work will connect supply and demand forecasting, audience availability, and response prediction to help advertisers compare alternatives and identify valuable opportunities
- This is a hands-on role with end-to-end ownership of forecasting models and production capabilities
- You will drive projects from problem formulation and technical design through evaluation, deployment, and iteration, working closely with engineers and cross-functional partners
- Own forecasting and scenario modeling projects. Translate advertiser questions into modeling problems involving delivery, reach, performance, and investment tradeoffs. Develop technical approaches, make practical tradeoffs, and drive execution
- Connect inventory, demand, and response. Use signals about available advertising opportunities, audience activity, marketplace competition, and predicted response to improve estimates of achievable campaign outcomes
- Model outcomes under alternative choices. Build and improve models that estimate the effects of changes in budget, bid, audience, or optimization objective, accounting for relevant auction dynamics and campaign constraints
- Help advertisers identify opportunity. Incorporate predictions from partner teams, including creative-performance estimates, to evaluate potential improvements in delivery, efficiency, or advertiser value
- Improve model generalization. Develop approaches for sparse segments, cold start, seasonality, delayed feedback, and changing marketplace conditions. Choose methods that balance predictive quality, complexity, and production requirements
- Build trustworthy evaluations. Measure forecast accuracy, calibration, uncertainty, and performance across advertiser cohorts. Document modeling assumptions and limitations, and work with partners to determine which scenario comparisons the evidence supports
- Close the learning loop. Compare predictions with mature outcomes, investigate systematic errors, and use experiments and observed results to improve forecasts and validate scenario estimates
- Deliver reliable production systems. Own training, inference, monitoring, and iteration for your models. Collaborate with Product, Data Science, Ads Delivery, Audience, and Creative teams; contribute to design and code reviews; and mentor engineers through project work
- You independently deliver and operate forecasting capabilities that improve accuracy and calibration for priority advertiser populations. Your models support credible comparisons of campaign alternatives, have clear evaluation and monitoring, and help advertisers make better planning and investment decisions
Benefits
- Comprehensive health benefits
- Flexible vacation & Reddit global days off
- Family planning funds & 4+ months paid parental leave
- Personal & professional development funds
- Paid volunteer time off
- Workspace & home office benefits
We're looking for
- Strong foundations in statistical learning, probability, and optimization, with experience working with large-scale behavioral or transactional data
- Experience diagnosing and addressing modeling challenges such as sparse observations, cold start, seasonality, distribution shift, selection bias, or delayed labels
- Strong programming and software engineering skills, including experience building and operating production ML pipelines and services
- Experience independently designing, shipping, and improving predictive ML systems in advertising, marketplaces, recommendations, search, forecasting, or similarly complex domains
- Practical experience in at least one relevant area, such as forecasting, response prediction, probabilistic modeling, multitask learning, or transfer learning
- Demonstrated ability to turn ambiguous product questions into concrete technical plans, lead projects through rollout, and collaborate effectively across functions
- Sound evaluation judgment, including temporal validation, segment-level analysis, and an understanding of calibration, uncertainty, and the limits of predictions under changed conditions
- Demand, supply, and inventory forecasting: Advertising inventory, marketplace demand, traffic, retail demand, or capacity forecasting, including time-series methods, hierarchical or global models, and multi-horizon prediction
- Auction and investment modeling: Auction simulation or replay, win-rate and price prediction, bid/budget response curves, or constrained optimization
- Scenario evaluation: Counterfactual or off-policy evaluation, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty propagation, or combining predictive models to estimate campaign outcomes
- Reach and audience estimation: Population and overlap estimation, reach/frequency models, sampling correction, or saturation modeling
- Probabilistic and response modeling: Quantile or distributional prediction, calibrated conversion/value prediction, or delayed-feedback modeling
How we hire
- In select roles and locations, the interviews will be recorded, transcribed and summarized by artificial intelligence (AI). You will have the opportunity to opt out of recording, transcription and summarization prior to any scheduled interviews